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Syndicate Forecasts as at 30th September 2016 16/11/2016
Please click here to see the full schedule of the latest 2014 and 2015 forecasts as at 30th September 2016.
Alpha comment: the latest Lloyd’s market forecast for the 2014 year of account shows an improvement, in part due to the positive running-off of the pure and prior years and in part due to the strengthening of the US dollar against sterling during the third quarter. The market is currently forecasting a average midpoint profit of 9.4% as compared to 8.1% last quarter. The fully aligned syndicates have improved in line with the third party syndicates and also forecasting a similar forecast. The 2014 year of account will close as at 31st December 2016 and we would expect some further improvement prior to closure.
The latest forecast for the 2015 year of account shows another small negative movement. The market is now forecasting a profit of 3.6% as compared to the previous forecast of 3.7%. Since 30th June 2016 we have been hit by hurricanes Hermine and Matthew albeit that hurricane Matthew was in early October and therefore will not be specifically included in the latest estimates. Although these are not major catastrophes, they have the effect of knocking some profit off our bottom line. The majority of the 2015 year of account is off risk and therefore we expect the remainder of the 2015 run-off to be benign. Thus we would expect the market profit to improve prior to closure at the end of next year.