Thank you for visiting Alpha. You have now logged out.

To access the Alpha Private Client Area please login above with your username and password.

If you wish to register with us please contact:

Alpha Insurance Analysts Ltd, 107 Fenchurch Street London EC3M 5JF

T: 020 7767 3420 E:

Login Required

The Market News articles are for registered members only. Please input your email and provided password within the client login box at the top right of this page to view our articles in full.

Alternatively you can register for access to our Market News from HERE.

Forgotten Passwords

If you have forgotten your password please click HERE

or contact us below:

Tel: 020 7767 3433
Fax: 020 7022 8781

Thank you!
Alpha Insurance Analysts Ltd

Notice: Undefined index: client_login_id in /var/www/vhosts/ on line 58

Notice: Undefined variable: user_data in /var/www/vhosts/ on line 76

Notice: Trying to get property of non-object in /var/www/vhosts/ on line 76
to the Alpha Private Client Area.

Click on the Private Client Area icon to view information relating to your personal underwriting through Alpha.

Visit Market News to read Alpha’s commentary on events and listen to audio files of Alpha meetings and other events on Diary Dates.

Colorado State University (CSU) has released its first long range forecast for 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season which predicts slightly above average storm activity.

The report forecasts 14 Named Storms will occur in 2018, including 3 major hurricanes (being Category 3 and above).

The period 1981-2010 suffered an average of 12 Named Storms and 2 major hurricanes per season.

It also has predicted a 63% probability that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the United States and a 52% chance that at least one major hurricane will track into the Caribbean.

These two figures compare to an average occurrence in the 20th century of 52% (United States) and 42% (Caribbean).

CSU is the first of the major recognised forecasters in 2018 to publish its findings and is due to release an update at the end of May.

Please click here for access to the full report


Alpha comment: whilst we tend not to attach too much credence to these forecasts, it is the case that the tropical eastern Atlantic is continuing to be warmer than usual, which tends to produce more active hurricane seasons. Recent history has also shown active seasons often come in pairs following prolonged periods of inactivity (eg 2004 and 2005). The volatile nature of hurricanes, however, means that computer models struggle to accurately predict the track of an active hurricane when only a few days away from the coast (eg Hurricane Irma in 2017), let alone the number of landfalling hurricanes which may occur 5 months in advance of the season’s peak. Unsurprisingly, the track record of such forecasters in predicting the number of landfalling major hurricanes (ie the ones that will bother Lloyd’s) is underwhelming. Furthermore (and most importantly) forecasts do not (and cannot) predict which section of a coastline the anticipated hurricanes will strike.

To quote a commentator a few years ago:

“I find these forecasts to be nearly meaningless. They contain no actionable information. I am all for the research, but not happy about the hype and scepticism it brings. In 1992 we had four Atlantic hurricanes from six named storms. It was a light season. The “A” storm came in mid-August. That was Hurricane Andrew. As with real estate, the three most important factors are location, location, location. Nothing else, including number of storms, matters.”