Insights

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates 510 & 557 2018 Year of Account Results & Updated 2019 Forecasts

Posted 16.02.2021 – Quick takes

Tokio Marine Kiln has announced its results for the 2018 year of account for its syndicates 510 and 557 and has also released an updated forecast for the 2019 year of account.

Syndicate 510
The 2018 result of 0.7% of capacity is towards the top end of the previous forecast range, which was set between -3.3% and 1.7% of capacity.
The 2019 forecast loss forecast has deteriorated, from a range of between -14.4% and -4.4% to between -16.1% and -6.1% of capacity.

Syndicate 557
The 2018 result of 3.0% of capacity is an improvement on the previous forecast range, which was set between -2.3% and 2.7% of capacity.
The 2019 forecast loss forecast has deteriorated, from a range of between -4.2% and 0.8% to between -5.8% and -0.8% of capacity.

Alpha comment

The small but welcome profit for syndicate 510 on the close of 2018 is thanks to an investment return which doubled in the final quarter and a prior year reserve release equal to 6.3% of capacity, both of which are well above average. Similarly a large improvement in the last quarter of the 2018 year also moved syndicate 557 into profit, and likewise included a doubling of the investment return. Conversely, the deterioration in both the 2109 forecasts due to another lurch in the COVID-19 reserves is disappointing but we would hope for some improvement in these forecasts during this year.

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