Insights
ERS Syndicate 218 2018 Result, Updated 2019 Forecast & Initial 2020 Forecast
Posted 26/02/2021 – Quick takes
ERS has announced its result for the 2018 year of account for its motor syndicate 218 and has also released an updated forecast for the 2019 year of account as well as an initial forecast for the 2020 year of account.
Syndicate 218
The 2018 result of a loss of -2.4% of capacity is worse than the -1.5% midpoint of the previous forecast range, which was set between -6.5% and +3.5% of capacity.
The 2019 profit forecast at a midpoint of +4.5% (new range to be confirmed) is a slight deterioration on the previous midpoint of +5.0% within a range of between 0.0% and +10.0% of capacity.
The 2020 initial forecast is also positive with a midpoint profit of +4.9% of capacity (range to be confirmed).
Alpha comment
After an encouraging 2017, it is disappointing that syndicate 218 made a small loss for 2018 which deteriorated at the close of the underwriting year. However, the 2019 forecast remains a modest profit, with the positive effects of lockdown (reduced loss activity) partially benefitting the 2019 year. COVID-19 has led to premium falling short of target in 2020 but the lower loss activity has enabled a forecast for another profit at this early stage.
