Insights

North Atlantic Hurricane Season begins: 2021 Forecast Update

Posted 03.06.2021 – Analysis

The North Atlantic hurricane officially began on Tuesday, more than a week after Storm Ana formed close to Bermuda before dissipating without making landfall – the seventh consecutive year in which a storm has formed before the official start date – could that be the effects of climate change and the new normal?

Just before the official start of the season, The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Met Office released forecasts for the season and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) updated its forecast; predicting a more severe hurricane season than the estimate we reported in April. Colorado State University (CSU) has also updated its forecast to include an extra hurricane.

The NOAA has forecast between 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. The midpoint figures of these ranges are above the NOAA’s new definition of an ‘average’ hurricane season. The Met Office has forecast 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes: the lowest forecast of all the predictions we have been tracking. TSR has updated its forecast to include one extra named storm, hurricane and major hurricane, citing an expectation of warmer sea temperatures and lower trade winds than previously anticipated as the reasons behind the increase.

 

Measure

Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes

CSU Forecast 2021

17 8 4

TSR Forecast 2021 (Updated)

18 9

4

NOAA Forecast 13-20 6-10

3-5

Met Office

14 7 3

Long-term Average

12 6

3

10-year Average 17 7

3

NOAA new ‘Average’

14 7

3

2020 Actual 30 13

7

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