Insights

Hiscox Syndicate 33 and SPA 6104: 2019 and 2020 Updated Forecasts

Posted 03.08.2021 – Quick takes

Hiscox Ltd has released updated forecasts for the 2019 and 2020 years of account for Syndicate 33 and SPA 6104.

Syndicate 33
The 2019 forecast range has improved marginally to between -9.0% and +1.0% (midpoint -4.0%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -9.5% and +0.5% (midpoint -4.5%) of capacity.
The 2020 forecast range has improved to between -7.5% and +2.5% (midpoint -2.5%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -8.5% and +1.5% (midpoint -3.5%) of capacity.

SPA 6104
The 2019 forecast range has improved to between -21.5% and -11.5% (midpoint -16.5%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -28.0% and -18.0% (midpoint -23.0%) of capacity.
The 2020 forecast range has improved to between -25.0% and -15.0% (midpoint -20.0%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -28.5% and -18.5% (midpoint -23.5%) of capacity.

Alpha comment

There has been a small improvement in the loss forecasts for syndicate 33 and we would hope to see some further improvement in both forecasts before closure. The forecasts for SPA 6104 continue to improve. The 2019 forecast, which was initially reported as a loss as high as -90%, is now -16.5% which suggests that the catastrophe losses have been well-reserved. The 2020 forecast is also improved from the initial 12 months forecast of -23.5%. Again, we would expect these forecasts to improve further prior to closure.

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