Atrium Syndicate 609: 2019 and 2020 Year of Account Forecasts

Posted 05/08/2021 – Quick takes

Syndicate 609
The 2019 forecast range is unchanged +2.5% and +7.5% of capacity (midpoint +5% profit).
The 2020 forecast is a unchanged at between +2.5% and +12.5% of capacity (midpoint +7.5% profit).

Alpha comment

We might normally have expected to see some improvement in the 2019 forecast as this stage of development. The forecast remains a profit of 5% despite a large part of their COVID-19 reserves attaching the 2019 year of account. In time, these reserves may prove to be prudent but with ongoing uncertainty surrounding this loss, it is sensible to hold the reserves steady. The year is also suffering from a much reduced investment income than in previous years. The unchanged forecast for 2020 is understandable at this early stage of development despite the underlying loss ratios showing improvements both from improved market conditions and the positive impact of COVID-19 on claims activity. Atrium continues with its cautious approach whilst also maintaining these top quartile forecasts.

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