ERS Syndicate 218: 2019 and 2020 Year of Account Forecasts

Posted 13/08/2021 – Quick takes

ERS has released updated forecasts for the 2019 and 2020 years of account for syndicate 218.

The 2019 forecast range has deteriorated to between -1.59% and +8.40% of capacity (midpoint +3.4% profit). The previous midpoint was +3.8%.

The 2020 forecast range has improved to between +1.49% and +11.49% of capacity (midpoint +6.5% profit). The previous midpoint was +5.9%.

Alpha comment

Several UK motor insurers have reported excellent half year results in recent weeks due to the reduced vehicle usage. It is, therefore, disappointing that the syndicate is reporting a deterioration in its forecast for the 2019 year of account this quarter. This is despite the positive contribution from the 2018 & prior years increasing within this updated forecast. There is some slight good news on the 2020 year, where the midpoint is now 6.5%, which is above the target within the business plan, due to the reduced motor vehicle usage during much of the 2020 calendar year. It is still not that inspiring a result in a year which has seen the loss ratios artificially suppressed, when rates were strong and any extra premium written would have diluted the high expense ratio.

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