QBE has released updated forecasts for the 2019 and 2020 years of account for syndicate 386.

The 2019 forecast range has deteriorated to between -3.6% and +1.4% of capacity (midpoint -1.1% loss). The previous forecast range was between -1.2% and +3.8% of capacity (midpoint +1.3% profit).

The 2020 forecast range has deteriorated to between +12.8% and +17.8% of capacity (midpoint +15.3% profit). The previous forecast range was between +18.8% and +23.8% of capacity (midpoint +21.3% profit).

Alpha comment: it is disappointing to see a further deterioration of the 2019 forecast, with the midpoint now over 10 percentage points lower than it was 6 months ago and the year of account now forecast to produce a small loss. The primary reason for this is further adverse development of prior year reserves, which are now looking to have a shortfall of over £49m as compared with a shortfall of £42m reported last quarter. This is prior to their Q4 reserving exercise which is currently underway and where the reserves are examined in more detail. Investment returns, which have historically underpinned the performance of the account are now looking negative which is also extremely disappointing. The 2020 forecast has also worsened at this early stage as well. The deterioration is largely due to a high level of large loss experience in the international liability portfolio. The syndicate is still forecasting a strong profit but we would have hoped there was enough caution built into the early forecasts to allow for this type of loss activity on a longtail liability book.