S.A. Meacock syndicate 727 updated forecasts

The 2019 forecast range has improved to between -0.5% and +9.5% of capacity (midpoint +4.5% profit). The previous forecast range was between -2.5% and +7.5% of capacity (midpoint +2.5% profit).

The 2020 forecast range is unchanged at between -9.0% and +11.0% of capacity (midpoint +1% profit).

Alpha comment: the improvement in the 2019 forecast is typical of the development at 33 months for this syndicate, and given the syndicate’s historically strong reserving policy, we would expect a further improvement at closure. The syndicate generally keeps its forecasts stable in the second calendar year, so the unchanged forecast for the 2020 year of account is as expected and it is likely that this year of account will improve and hopefully achieve a similar result to the 2019 year of account, given the current forecast is the same as it was for 2019 at the same stage of development.