MAP Syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103: 2019 and 2020 Updated Forecasts

MAP has released updated forecasts for the 2019 and 2020 years of account for Syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103.

Syndicate 2791
The 2019 forecast range has improved to between 0% and +5.0% of capacity (midpoint +2.5% profit). The previous forecast range was between -2.5% and +5% (midpoint +1.3%) of capacity.
The 2020 forecast is unchanged at between -5.0% and +2.5% of capacity (midpoint -1.3% loss).

SPA 6103
The 2019 forecast range is unchanged at between +20.0% and +27.5% of capacity (midpoint +23.3% profit).
The 2020 forecast has deteriorated slightly to between -10.0% and 0% of capacity (midpoint -5.0% loss). The previous forecast range was between -9% and +1% (midpoint -4%) of capacity.

Alpha comment

Syndicate 2791 continues to forecast a small profit for 2019 and a smaller loss for 2020. It is pleasing that the forecast for 2019 has improved and we would expect this to improve further at closure when an element of prior year reserve releases may be included (as no release is included in the forecast prior to closure). We are hopeful that the 2020 year of account will follow a similar pattern in time. Although the 2020 year of account forecast for SPA 6103 has reduced slightly, the small loss is not entirely unexpected given the high level of US hurricane activity in the latter part of last year as well as the loss from Winter Storm Uri in February this year, the majority of which falls back onto the 2020 year of account for both syndicates.