MAP has released updated forecasts for the 2019 year of account and initial forecasts for the 2020 year of account for its syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103.
The 2019 forecast range is unchanged at between -2.5% and +5.0% of capacity (midpoint +1.3% profit).
The first 2020 forecast is a range of between -5.0% and +2.5% of capacity (midpoint -1.3% loss).
The 2019 forecast range has narrowed to between +20.0% and +27.5% of capacity (midpoint +23.3% profit). The previous forecast was for a slightly wider range of between +20.0% and +30.0% of capacity.
The first 2020 forecast is a range of between -9.0% and +1.0% of capacity (midpoint -4.0% loss).
Alpha comment: Syndicate 2791 is forecasting a small profit for 2019 and a small loss for 2020. Although hit quite hard by the numerous US losses in the latter part of 2020 (most notably from Hurricane Laura), the annualised combined ratio for 2020 was 94% (2019: 75%). Since that time Winter Storm Uri which occurred in the first quarter of 2021 will fall back on to the 2020 account which has led to the initial forecast of a small midpoint loss of -1.3%. The forecast for the 2019 year of account for SPA 6103 is a very strong profit, albeit slightly reduced this quarter. The syndicate reported a 2020 annualised combined ratio of 86% (2019: 32%) but as with the main syndicate the SPA was affected by Winter Storm Uri which has led to the initial midpoint forecast loss of -4.0%.