Forecasts & Results

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates 510 & 557 2019 Year of Account Results & Updated 2020 Forecasts

Posted 11.02.2022 – Quick takes

Syndicate 510
The 2019 result of a loss of -3.8 % of capacity is towards the top end of the previous forecast range, which was set between -7.4% and -2.4% of capacity.
The 2020 forecast is unchanged at between -2.5% and +2.5% of capacity, midpoint breakeven result.

Syndicate 557
The 2019 result is profit of +1.9% of capacity which was slightly below the midpoint of the previously forecast range set between -0.5% and +4.5% of capacity.
The 2020 forecast is unchanged at a loss of between -13.2% and -8.2% of capacity, midpoint -10.7%.

Alpha Comment

The -3.8% loss for syndicate 510 on the 2019 year of account is primarily because the bulk of syndicate 510’s COVID-19 losses attach to this year. We believe that their COVID-19 exposure on 2019 has been reserved on a conservative basis without any release at the 2019 close Although the 2020 year of account will also bear some COVID-19 losses, we are hopeful that syndicate 510 will close the 2020 year of account with a small gross profit.

Given the relatively benign amount of non-Japanese catastrophe activity in the 2019 year of account, it is unfortunate that some COVID-19 losses have dampened what might have been a very good result for syndicate 557. Once again we believe that the reserves for the COVID-19 losses on 557 are on a conservative basis and may be able to help the 2020 result of 557.

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