Forecasts & Results
Hiscox Syndicate 33 and SPA 6104 2020 & 2021 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 10/05/2022 – Quick takes
Hiscox has released updated forecasts for the 2020 an 2021 years of account for syndicate 33 and SPA 6104.
The 2020 forecast has improved to between -7.5% and +2.5% of capacity, midpoint -2.5%. The previous forecast range was between -8.2% and +1.7%, midpoint -3.2%.
The 2021 forecast has worsened to between -4.1% and +5.9% of capacity, midpoint +0.9%. The previous forecast range was between -2.6% and +7.4%, midpoint +2.4%.
The 2020 forecast has worsened to between -13.4% and -3.4% of capacity, midpoint -8.4%. The previous forecast range was between -12.4% and -2.4%, midpoint -7.4%.
The 2021 forecast has improved to between -19.5% and -4.5% of capacity, midpoint -12.0%. The previous forecast range was between -22.0% and +12.0%, midpoint -17.0%.
Having deteriorated marginally last quarter, it is pleasing to see an improvement in the 2020 year of account forecast for syndicate 33. Historically, forecast have improved by several points in the final calendar year prior to close, meaning a profit still looks possible for this year of account. Hiscox is unusual issuing a forecast at the twelve months stage. The initial forecast for the 2021 year of account was made prior to the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia and therefore the small deterioration this quarter will be attributable to this. The current midpoint forecast is better than the previous four years at the same stage and slightly higher than the 2016 year of account which ultimately produced a +7.3% profit. Therefore, we are hopeful a reasonable profit is possible on this year of account, particularly since syndicate 33 does not have significant exposure to the uncertainty surrounding potential aviation losses from the war in Ukraine.
Alpha does not recommend support of SPA 6104. The forecasts for this SPA have been volatile in recent years, therefore, it is very hard to predict the result for either the 2020 or 2021 years of account based on these forecasts. The forecasts have historically tended to improve over time which may mean a better result is possible on both year of accounts, but the small deterioration on the 2020 forecast somewhat contradicts this.