Forecasts & Results

MAP Syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103 2020 & 2021 Year of Account Forecasts

Posted 03.08.2022 – Quick takes

MAP has released updated forecasts for the 2020 and 2021 years of account for syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103.

Syndicate 2791

The 2020 forecast is unchanged at between -5.0% and +2.5% of capacity, midpoint -1.25%.

The 2021 forecast has improved to between -2.5% and +5% of capacity, midpoint +1.25%. The previous forecast range was between -5.0% and +2.5%,  midpoint -1.25%.

SPA 6103

The 2020 forecast is unchanged at between -17.5% and -10.0% of capacity, midpoint -13.75%.

The 2021 forecast has improved to between -12.5% and -5.0%, midpoint -8.75%. The previous forecast range was between -15.0% and -5.0% of capacity,  midpoint -10.0%.

Alpha comment

It is pleasing to see the forecast for the 2021 year of account for syndicate 2791 improve to a small profit. Given the consistency and methodology of MAP’s forecasting, whereby they do not account for any prior year releases within its forecast until the year closes, as we mentioned previously, we would expect this syndicate to produce a good profit on this year of account. The forecast for the 2020 year of account for 2791 has remained steady since the initial forecast 15 months ago and for the same reasons as the 2021 year of account, we would expect this year to ultimately close with a profit.

It looks likely that the 2020 year of account for SPA 6103 will close with a loss since the syndicate does not benefit from any prior year reserve releases, as it is reinsured to closed into parent syndicate 2791. Although the forecast for the 2021 year of account has improved, it looks like it may be difficult for this year of account to close with a profit. A small loss on this year of account would not be too disappointing, given the SPA’s large hurricane Ida losses.

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