Forecasts & Results
Atrium Syndicate 609: 2020 and 2021 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 08/08/2022 – Quick takes
Atrium has released updated forecasts for the 2020 and 2021 years of account for syndicate 609.
The forecast for the 2020 year of account has worsened to between +5.0% and +10.0% of capacity, midpoint +7.5%. The previous forecast range was between +7.5% and +15% of capacity, midpoint +11.25%.
The forecast for the 2021 year of account is unchanged at between 0.0% and +10% of capacity, midpoint +5.0%
Although it is unusual to see Atrium’s forecasts worsen at this, or any, stage, the reasons for the deterioration on the forecast for the 2020 year of account are reasonable. Firstly, in line with many other syndicates Atrium has downgraded its investment income return. Secondly, Atrium has made allowances in its reserves for higher inflation than initial planned for, which may make the run-off of the 2020 years and prior less favourable than originally anticipated. We welcome this pro-active approach to reserving and are pleased that Atrium still expects an “exceptional underwriting profit” on this year of account.
The forecast for the 2021 year of account is unchanged. Atrium has advised us that whilst there is a reserve for possible claims arising out of the leased aircraft in Russia, this is the year of account with the most exposure to these potential losses and there is a still a wide range of potential outcomes for this loss event.