Forecasts & Results

Ive Syndicate 2525: 2020 and 2021 Year of Account Forecasts

Posted 09/08/2022 – Quick takes

Asta has released updated forecasts for the 2019 and 2020 years of account for Ive Syndicate 2525.

Syndicate 2525

The 2020 forecast has improved to between +5.0% and +20.0% of capacity, midpoint +12.5%. The previous forecast range was between 0.0% and +15.0% of capacity, midpoint +7.5%.

The 2021 forecast is unchanged at between 0.0% and +15.0% of capacity, midpoint +7.5%.

Alpha comment

It is always reassuring to see a forecast profit improve over time. Despite the syndicate now anticipating a negative investment return for the 2020 year of account, the forecast for both the pure year and the prior underwriting result have improved significantly, allowing the syndicate to increase its profit forecast to a midpoint of +12.5%. We anticipate the syndicate closing the 2020 year of account firmly in the top quartile, in part aided by reduced claims activity as a result of the closure of workplaces during COVID-19 lockdowns. The forecast for the 2021 year of account remains unchanged as this syndicate typically keeps its forecasts stable in the early stages of development. Given that rates in the non-US liability class continued to improve throughout 2021, and the syndicate has reported no large losses of note to date, we believe that this year of account will ultimately produce another strong profit.

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