Forecasts & Results
Lancashire Syndicate 2010: 2020 and 2021 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 21/08/2022 – Quick takes
Lancashire has released updated forecasts for the 2020 and 2021 years of account for syndicate 2010
Syndicate 2010
The forecast for the 2020 year of account is unchanged at between -9.0% and +1.0% of capacity, midpoint -4.0%.
The forecast for the 2021 year of account is unchanged at between -10.0% and +2.5% of capacity, midpoint -3.8%.
Alpha comment
The forecast for the 2020 year of account has not changed this quarter. We await details of any movements in the major claims affecting both 2020 and 2021 before we comment as to whether there may be a possibility that either year of account could eventually close with a profit. This syndicate generally closes years with a result that is several points better than the forecast at this stage of development, due to its conservative forecasting and reserving methodologies. The 2021 year of account forecast has remained unchanged at this stage, and whilst there is an allowance within the forecasts for losses emanating from the war in Ukraine, no allowance has yet been made for losses from the stranded aircraft in Russia, which could be substantial, given the syndicate’s sizeable aviation reinsurance book.
