Forecasts & Results
Blenheim Syndicate 5886: 2020 and 2021 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 22/08/2022 – Quick takes
Blenheim has released updated forecasts for the 2020 and 2021 years of account for syndicate 5886
Syndicate 5886
The forecast for the 2020 year of account is unchanged at between -2.0% and +3.0% of capacity, midpoint +0.5%.
The forecast for the 2021 year of account has improved to between -7.5% and +7.5% of capacity, midpoint 0.0%. The previous forecast range was between -10.0% and +7.5%, midpoint -1.3%.
Alpha comment
We are relieved that the forecast for the 2020 year of account has remained steady this quarter since it has worsened in each of the last two quarters. A small midpoint forecast profit is not particularly exciting, but it would be the syndicate’s first profit since it was established and, therefore, very welcome. We had been anticipating that the forecast for the 2021 year of account could worsen, as the syndicate has a substantial specialty reinsurance book which is likely to suffer losses from the war in Ukraine and stranded aircraft in Russia, therefore, it is a pleasant surprise that the forecast has slightly improved. However, we are aware that potential aircraft losses have generally not been included to any great extent in the current forecasts
