Beazley syndicates 623 and 5623 and SPA 6107: 2020 & 2021 Year of Account Forecasts

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This is a pleasing set of forecasts from Beazley, with forecasts on most years of account improving and none deteriorating.

A midpoint profit is now forecast on the 2020 year of account for syndicate 623 for the first time, although it is still in the balance whether the result will exceed the +3.1% profit achieved on the 2019 year of account due to the difficult investment environment. A strong profit looks achievable on the 2021 year of account, although this may be dampened by any further losses due to the war in Ukraine and potential losses from the stranded aircraft in Russia.

Syndicate 5623 looks very likely to produce a good profit in 2020; continuing its run of successive profits since formation for 2017. The 2021 year of account also looks set to continue this positive trend, helped by the syndicate’s decision not to renew a political violence and terrorism facility that is expected to suffer significant losses from the war in Ukraine.

A loss on the 2020 year of account appears to be probable for SPA 6107, although the cyber part of the book has yet to earn out. The 5 point improvement to the midpoint forecast for the 2021 year of account does, however, counteract the forecast loss on the 2020 year of account. We expect that, despite the large catastrophe losses in 2021, there could be further improvement before the close of this year of account given that cyber accounts for a larger portion of the SPA’s income and cyber market conditions were very favourable to underwriters in 2021.