Forecasts & Results
MAP Syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103 2020 & 2021 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 03/11/2022 – Quick takes
MAP has released updated forecasts for the 2020 and 2021 years of account for syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103.
Syndicate 2791
The 2020 forecast is unchanged at between -5.0% and +2.5% of capacity, midpoint -1.25%.
The 2021 forecast is unchanged at between -2.5% and +5.0% of capacity, midpoint +1.25%.
SPA 6103
The 2020 forecast has worsened to between -20.0% and -15.0%, midpoint -17.5%. The previous forecast range was between -17.5% and -10.0% of capacity, midpoint -13.75%.
The 2021 forecast is unchanged at between -12.5% and -5% of capacity, midpoint -8.75%.
Alpha comment
Although the forecasts for the 2020 and 2021 year of account for syndicate 2791 have not improved this quarter, we still expect both years to close with small profits, given that MAP does not account for any prior year releases within its forecast until the year closes.
The revision to the forecast for the 2020 year of account for SPA 6103 is driven by foreign exchange movements, with a double-digit loss now looking likely as, unlike the parent syndicate, the SPA does not benefit from any prior year reserve releases. We are still hopeful that the 2021 year of account may improve prior to closure.
