Forecasts & Results

Atrium Syndicate 609: 2020 and 2021 Year of Account Forecasts

Posted 04/11/2022 – Quick takes

Atrium has released updated forecasts for the 2020 and 2021 years of account for syndicate 609.

Syndicate 609

The forecast for the 2020 year of account is unchanged at between +5.0% and +10.0% of capacity, midpoint +7.5%.

The forecast for the 2021 year of account is unchanged at between 0.0% and +10% of capacity, midpoint +5.0%

Alpha comment

The forecast for the 2020 year of account deteriorated as at Q2 2022 due to investment losses and the syndicate taking steps to manage the possible effects of inflation on historical reserves. With the forecast remaining unchanged this quarter, we expect that a high single figure profit will be achieved, showing the strength of the underlying underwriting year.

The 2021 forecast includes a probability weighted reserve for potential losses from the leased aircraft in Ukraine and since the range does not cater for either the least or most favourable outcomes there could be some movement in the forecast prior to close. The rating environment continued to improve in 2021 and the syndicates losses from Hurricane Ida, the most significant natural catastrophe losses event, are lower than its peers, due to the syndicate’s limited appetite for natural catastrophe exposed business. We, therefore, anticipate that a good profit can be achieved if the loss from leased aircraft develops as expected.

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