Forecasts & Results
Hiscox Syndicate 33 and SPA 6104 2020 & 2021 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 16/11/2022 – Quick takes
Hiscox has released updated forecasts for the 2020 an 2021 years of account for syndicate 33 and SPA 6104.
The 2020 forecast has improved to between -3.6% and +6.4% of capacity, midpoint +1.4%. The previous forecast range was between -4.8% and +5.2%, midpoint +0.2%.
The 2021 forecast has improved to between -2.2% and +7.8% of capacity, midpoint +2.8%. The previous forecast range was between -3.6% and +6.4%, midpoint +1.4%.
The 2020 forecast has worsened to between -4.7% and +5.3% of capacity, midpoint +0.3%. The previous forecast range was between -3.2% and +6.8%, midpoint +1.8%.
The 2021 forecast has worsened to between -17.1% and -2.1% of capacity, midpoint -9.6%. The previous forecast range was between -16.1% and -1.1%, midpoint -8.6%.
we are pleased that the forecast for the 2020 year of account for syndicate 33 has improved for the third successive quarter, with a modest profit now looking highly likely. The forecast for the 2021 year of account has also improved, for the second quarter running, with a better profit looking likely. This year of account is clearly benefiting from the extensive portfolio remediation exercise that has been undertaken, as well as Hiscox having a lower exposure to the stranded leased aircraft in Russia, as compared with its peers.
It is disappointing to see both forecasts for 6104 worsen marginally this quarter. We understand that foreign exchange movements are the primary reason and that there is scope for improvement before close on both years of account, particularly 2020, where the syndicate holds significant IBNR for COVID-19.