Forecasts & Results
Blenheim Syndicate 5886 2020 Year of Account Result & Updated 2021 Forecast
Posted 16/02/2023 – Quick takes
Blenheim has announced its result for the 2020 Year of Account for its syndicate 5886 and has also released an update for the 2021 year of account
Syndicate 5886
The 2020 loss of -0.7% of capacity is below the midpoint of the previous forecast range, which was set between -2.0% and +3.0% of capacity.
The 2021 forecast range has improved, to a range between -4.0% and +6.0% (midpoint +1.0%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -7.5% and +7.5% (midpoint 0.0%) of capacity.
Alpha Comment
It is disappointing to see the 2020 year of account report a -0.7% loss for the syndicate’s capital providers, downgraded from a midpoint +0.5% profit forecast at the end of the last quarter. This represents the fourth loss year in a row since the syndicate’s inception in 2017. Once again, the property reinsurance book is to blame – the result of heightened catastrophe activity and the impact of secondary perils – with little in the way of reserves, as a new syndicate, to help cushion the blow.
It is therefore somewhat encouraging that the mid-point forecast for the 2021 year of account, a year that was also impacted by property catastrophe events as well as the war in Ukraine, has improved to a midpoint +1.0% profit from breakeven at the last quarter. That said, previous years have deteriorated towards the close, so we will continue to monitor this syndicate very closely.
