Forecasts & Results

Lancashire Syndicate 2010 2020 Year of Account Result & Updated 2021 Forecast

Posted 21/02/2023 – Forecasts & Results

Lancashire has announced its result for the 2020 Year of Account for its syndicate 2010 and has also released an update for the 2021 year of account

Syndicate 2010

The 2020 loss of -2.5% of capacity is above the midpoint of the previous forecast range, which was set between -9.0% and +1.0% of capacity.

The 2021 forecast range has deteriorated, to a range between 0.0% and -12.5% (midpoint -6.3%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -12.5% and +2.5% (midpoint -5.0%) of capacity.

Alpha Comment

The 2020 year was heavily impacted by Hurricane Laura, a Severe Derecho and the US Winter storm Uri together with several other smaller catastrophe losses. This ultimate loss of -2.5% includes prior year releases and an investment loss, the details of which are not yet available.

The 2021 year forecast range has narrowed but with a deterioration of the midpoint, due to increased reserves for Ukraine following an external review of reserves held for this event.

Lancashire also announced that its 2022 calendar year results (annual accounting result) for Syndicate 2010 was a loss of ($42.0m). The combined ratio for the 2022 calendar year was 114.7%. This includes all of the Ukraine exposure and forecast losses from hurricane Ian. This compares with a combined ratio for the 2021 calendar year of 106.3% and the 2020 calendar year of 104.6%. This suggests that the initial forecast for the 2022 year of account (published in May as at 31st March 2023) will most likely be another midpoint loss.

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