Forecasts & Results
Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates 510 & 557 2020 Year of Account Result & Updated 2021 Forecast
Posted 03/03/2023 – Quick takes
Tokio Marine Kiln has announced its result for the 2020 Year of Account for its syndicates 510 & 557 and has also released an update for the 2021 year of account
Syndicate 510
The 2020 year has closed with a profit of 7.0% of capacity which is double the previous midpoint of 3.5% and outside the top of the previous forecast range, which was set between +1.0% and +6.0% of capacity.
The 2021 forecast range has deteriorated, to a range between -4.3% and +5.7% (midpoint +0.7%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -2.1% and +7.9% (midpoint +2.9%) of capacity.
Syndicate 557
The 2020 profit of 1.4% of capacity is better than the midpoint loss of the previous forecast range, which was set between -6.7% and -1.7% of capacity.
The 2021 forecast has deteriorated, to a range between -9.4% and -4.4% (midpoint -6.9%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -8.4% and -3.4% (midpoint -5.9%) of capacity.
Alpha Comment
This strong profit for 510 for 2020 is thanks to a £116m reserve release from the 2019 & prior years, a significant part of which is from the syndicate’s large COVID reserves. The 2021 forecast remains positive but has reduced due to a large increase on the aviation reserve for the war in Ukraine, reflecting the ongoing continued uncertainty of how the aviation market will respond to the various claims for the trapped aircraft in Russia. It is still expected to be several years before ultimate certainty can be gained on the quantum of this loss.
The result for 557 for 2020 improved into a profit, mostly due to an increase in the release from reserves from the 2019 & prior years but also a small improvement in the 2020 pure, meaning a reduction on the reserves held for the major losses in the 2020 calendar year. However, a small deterioration in the expectation of the outcome for the 2021 pure year has led to a small increase in the loss forecast for the 2021 year of account at this stage.
