Forecasts & Results
Updated – Hiscox Syndicates 33 & 6104 2020 Year of Account Result & Updated 2021 Forecast
Posted 08/03/2023 – Quick takes
Hiscox has announced its result for the 2020 Year of Account for its syndicates 33 & 6104 and has also released an update for the 2021 year of account
Syndicate 33 (Updated)
The 2020 profit of 4.4% of capacity is above the midpoint of the previous forecast range, which was set between -3.6% and +6.4% of capacity.
The 2021 forecast is unchanged at between -2.2% and +7.8% of capacity, midpoint +2.8% of capacity.
An early forecast for the 2022 year of account after just 12 months is a result in the range -0.8% to +9.2%, midpoint +4.2%.
Syndicate 6104 (Updated)
The 2020 year of account remains open. The forecast deteriorated to a range between -5.6% and +4.4% of capacity, midpoint -0.6% of capacity. The previous forecast range was between –4.7% and +5.3% (midpoint +0.3%) of capacity.
The 2021 forecast range has moved to a range between -10.7% and +4.3% (midpoint -3.2%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -17.5% and -2.2% (midpoint -9.7%) of capacity.
An early forecast for the 2022 year of account after just 12 months is a result in the range –5.8% to +4.2%, midpoint -0.8%.
Alpha Comment
The 2020 result of syndicate 33 is very welcome, being well above the forecast mid-point. We believe that the 2021 has scope for improvement. The initial forecast for 2022 is encouraging.
Syndicate 6104 is being left open on account of the uncertainty relating to Covid-19 reserves. To date claims received represents a very low percentage of the reserves currently held, but the significant reduction in syndicate 6104’s stamp between 2020 and 2021 would suggest that leaving the account open is the correct decision. The Hiscox management expect that the 2020 year of account should be able to close within 24 months. The forecast loss on 2021 has reduced which also shows a positive trend and the early forecast for the 2022 year is reasonable considering the large loss reserved for hurricane Ian.
