Forecasts & Results
MAP Syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103 2021 & 2022 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 04/05/2023 – Quick takes
MAP has released an updated forecast for the 2021 year of account and an initial forecast for the 2022 year of account for syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103.
Syndicate 2791
The 2021 forecast has improved to a profit between +1.0% and +6.0% of capacity, midpoint +3.5% previously 0.0% to +5.0%, midpoint +2.5%.
An initial 2022 forecast has been set with a range of between +2.5% and +10.0% of capacity, midpoint +6.25%.
SPA 6103
The 2021 forecast has narrowed to a loss between -5.0% and -10.0% of capacity, midpoint -7.5%. The previous forecast range was between -5.0% and -12.5%, midpoint -8.75%.
An initial 2022 forecast has been set with a range of between -2.5% and -12.5% of capacity, midpoint -7.5%.
Alpha comment
We are pleased to see the 2021 forecasts for both syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103 improve at this stage. As a reminder, MAP does not include any potential releases from prior years in any of their forecasts prior to ultimate closure and therefore this improvement will be due to the pure 2021 year and/or an improved investment income outlook.
The 2022 year was materially impacted by the large loss from Hurricane Ian. SPA 6103 buys no reinsurance and therefore it was to be expected that the initial forecast would be negative. It is possible that this forecast could improve over time, if the hurricane Ian reserve ultimately proves to be cautious, and subject to the run-off of any remaining liabilities of the year. The initial forecast for 2791 is positive, due to significant reinsurance recoveries expected from Hurricane Ian.
