Forecasts & Results

Atrium Syndicate 609 2021 & 2022 Year of Account Forecasts

Posted 10/05/2023 – Quick takes

Atrium has released an updated forecast for the 2021 year of account and an initial forecast for the 2022 year of account for syndicate 609.

Syndicate 609

The 2021 forecast has remained in the range of between +5.0% and +15% of capacity, midpoint +10.0%.

An initial 2022 forecast has been set with a range of between +5.0% and +15% of capacity, midpoint +10.0%.

Alpha comment

There still remains significant uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the trapped aircraft in Russia, to which syndicate 609 has some exposure through its aviation, aviation war and aviation reinsurance books. Atrium recently published its annual report & accounts which details the reserves held for the direct and indirect losses arising from the war in Ukraine. Net reserves held totalled £47.9m as at 31st December 2022. The forecast midpoint profit of +10% is despite the majority of the Ukraine reserve attaching to the 2021 year of account. Due to the nature of the circumstances, Atrium reports that the potential for variation to the booked reserves is considerably greater than the normal level of reserve sensitivity to downside risk and the actual outcome of the loss could be in a particularly wide range with greater than usual variability.

The initial forecast for the 2022 year of account is +10%. Whilst the syndicate has a reserve for hurricane Ian, it is not expected to be a large loss to the syndicate and only a small part of the reserve for the war in Ukraine sits within the 2022 year.

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