Forecasts & Results
Dale Syndicate 1729 2021 & 2022 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 11/05/2023 – Quick takes
Dale has released an updated forecast for the 2021 year of account and an initial forecast for the 2022 year of account for syndicate 1729.
The 2021 forecast has narrowed to a range of between -4.0% and +6.0% of capacity, midpoint +1.0%, previously -5.0% to +10.0%, midpoint +2.5%.
An initial 2022 forecast has been set with a range of between -3.0% and +12.0% of capacity, midpoint +4.5%.
It is slightly disappointing to see the latest forecast for the 2021 year of account starting to follow the later forecasts for the 2020 year of account, apparently due to a reduction in anticipated ultimate premium together with a small shortfall on the prior years.
The initial forecast for 2022 is a modest midpoint profit within a wide range. The syndicate has a large gross and net exposure to hurricane Ian, much of which is held as a reserve, above the currently incurred claims. At such an early stage of development this inevitably creates some uncertainty for the outcome of the year of account.