Forecasts & Results
QBE Syndicate 386: 2021 and 2022 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 13/11/2023 – Quick takes
QBE has released updated forecasts for the 2021 and 2022 years of account for syndicate 386.
The 2021 forecast has worsened to between +4.7% and +9.7%, midpoint +7.2%. The previous forecast range was between +7.6% and +12.6% of capacity, midpoint +10.1%.
The 2022 forecast has improved to between +9.2% and +14.2% of capacity, midpoint +11.7%. The previous forecast range was between +8.3% and +13.3%, midpoint +10.8%.
It has unfortunately become an all too regular pattern that we report a deterioration on the next to close open year forecast, being now 2021, for 386, due to shortfalls on the reserves of the prior years. This is despite considerable re-reserving undertaken over the last couple of years. It gives us little comfort that the 2022 year is reporting an improvement allegedly due to an improved large loss experience.