Forecasts as at 30th September 2023

Lloyd’s has today released the full set of updated syndicate forecasts as at 30^th September 2023 for the 2021 & 2022 years of account.

The forecast for the market for 2021 has improved from a midpoint profit of +7.0% to a midpoint profit of +7.4%. Syndicates with third party capital have improved a little more than the fully aligned syndicates this quarter but aligned syndicates are still, in aggregate, forecasting a much greater profit of +8.7% as compared with just +4.6% for syndicates with third party capital.

As expected the forecast for the market for 2022 has improved markedly, from a midpoint profit of +7.2% to a midpoint profit of +9.0%. Aligned syndicates are forecasting an aggregate profit of +9.9% (up 2.1 points this quarter) and syndicates with third party capital are forecasting a profit of +6.7% (up 1.0 points this quarter).

We usually see syndicates with third party capital issue more cautious initial forecasts which tend to improve more steadily than the aligned syndicates over time but this does not seem to be the case this time. However, overall the improving forecasts on both open years are in line with our expectations. Based on the data received to date, forecast releases from prior years and investment income have increased a little in aggregate for our supported syndicates.

We will be writing to our members shortly with individual portfolio forecasts and an explanation of any key movements.