Forecasts & Results

MAP Syndicates 2791 & 6103 2021 Year of Account Result & Updated 2022 Forecast

Posted 27/02/2024 – Quick takes

MAP has announced its result for the 2021 Year of Account for its syndicates 2791 & 6103 and has also released an update for the 2022 year of account

Syndicate 2791

The 2021 year has closed with a profit of +9.9%. This compares with the previous forecast range of +2.5% to +7.5%, midpoint +5.0%.

The 2022 forecast has improved to a profit between +7.0% and +12.0% of capacity, midpoint +9.5%. The previous forecast range was between +6.0% and +11.0%, midpoint +8.5%.

Syndicate 6103

The 2021 forecast has closed with a loss of -3.7%. The previous forecast range was between -8.0% and -3.0%, midpoint -5.5%.

The 2022 forecast remains unchanged with a forecast range between -10.0% and -2.5%, midpoint -6.3%.

Alpha Comment

It is pleasing to see the result of syndicate 2791 improve in the final quarter, as usual. The result includes £21m of prior year reserve releases, similar to the amount released on the close of both the 2019 and 2020 years.  This puts the result for 2791 back in the top quartile. The forecast for the 2022 year of account is steadily improving each quarter. The midpoint forecast is now +9.5%, the highest forecast at the 24 months stage since the 2013 year.

SPA 6103 has closed with a loss, but close to the top end of the previously reported range. As a reminder, this year was materially impacted by losses from hurricane Ida which has no benefit from reinsurance. The initial forecast loss for the SPA at 15 months was a loss of -10.0% and, happily, this loss has reduced over time. The 2022 year of account was hit by losses from hurricane Ian. We could see some improvement on this year in the next twelve months, similar to how the 2021 year improved.

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