Forecasts & Results

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates 510 & 557 2021 Year of Account Result & Updated 2022 Forecast

Posted 28/02/2024 – Quick takes

Tokio Marine Kiln has announced its result for the 2021 Year of Account for its syndicates 510 & 557 and has also released an update for the 2022 year of account

Syndicate 510

The 2021 year has closed with a breakeven result of 0.0% of capacity.  The previous forecast range was between +0.6% and +5.6% (midpoint +3.1%) of capacity.

The 2022 forecast range has improved, to a range between +6.4% and +11.4% (midpoint +8.9%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between +4.3% and +9.3% (midpoint +6.8%) of capacity.

Syndicate 557

The 2021 year has closed with a loss of -0.8% of capacity.  The previous forecast range was between -4.7% and +0.3% (midpoint -2.2%) of capacity.

The 2022 forecast has improved, to a range between -27.2% and -32.2% (midpoint -29.7%) of capacity. The previous forecast range was between -34.5% and -29.5% (midpoint -32.0%) of capacity.

Alpha Comment

It is very disappointing to see the 2021 result for syndicate 510 reduced to a breakeven position. This 3.1 percentage point movement is attributed to a significant increase in the reserves for potential aviation losses arising out of Russia together with a shortfall on the prior years which has historically contributed generously to the bottom line, partly offset by an improving investment return. The improvement for 2022 is down to an improvement in the pure underwriting year and forecast investment returns.

The small loss declared for syndicate 557 is far less than the initial forecast loss of -7.1%. The syndicate ceased underwriting during 2022 and was hit by US tornadoes and hurricane Ian leading to a large forecast loss, albeit slightly improved this quarter.

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