Insights

Research from Colorado State University predicts ‘extremely active’ 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Posted 05/04/2024 – Quick takes

Research from Colorado State University’s (CSU) meteorology department has predicted an ‘extremely active’ Atlantic hurricane season for 2024. The team has been conducting research since 1995 and CSU’s April 2024 hurricane forecast is the most active hurricane season ever predicted by the team, since reporting started in 1995. The report estimates that there will be 23 named tropical storms, five of which are classed as category 3 or above hurricanes. Furthermore, CSU also suggests that more tropical storms are likely to make landfall. The water temperatures in the Atlantic so far this year have been unseasonably warm, conditions which favour the development of tropical storms.

 

Alpha comment

It is early in 2024 and CSU acknowledges that the report is based on current conditions which can rapidly change. We reported a few weeks ago that early reports from climatologists were suggesting that 2024 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season due to expected strong La Niña conditions coupled with sea temperatures being 1-3 degrees Celsius warmer than average. This is in direct contrast to the 2023 conditions where the El Niño conditions resulted in a benign hurricane season and therefore a low level losses from hurricane events. Property D&F and reinsurance terms and conditions as well as rates have improved significantly in recent years and continue to hold firm. There is talk that there is an increasing volume of reinsurance capacity available in the market, but it does not appear to be having a negative impact thus far. Reports such as these should help to maintain the current strong market conditions.

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