Forecasts & Results

Atrium Syndicate 609 2021 2022 & 2023 Year of Account Forecasts

Posted 05/05/2024 – Quick takes

Atrium has released an updated forecast for the 2021 and 2022 year of account and an initial forecast for the 2023 year of account for syndicate 609.

Syndicate 609

The 2021 forecast has remained in the range of between +5.0% and +15.0% of capacity, midpoint +10.0%.

The 2022 forecast has improved to a range of between +12.5% and +17.5% of capacity, midpoint +15.0%, previously +7.5% and +17.5% of capacity, midpoint +12.5%.

An initial 2023 forecast has been set with a range of between +5.0% and +15.0% of capacity, midpoint +10.0%.

Alpha comment

We do not expect to see movement on the forecast for the open 2021 year of account until there is more certainty on where the liability lies of the trapped aircraft in Russia.

The improvement of the midpoint forecast and the narrowing of the range for the 2022 year of account is welcome. This year will not benefit from as much investment income due to the prior year reserves being held in the open 2021 year. It may also not benefit from any prior year releases (or suffer any shortfalls) if the 2021 year of account is not closed at the end of this year.

The initial forecast for the 2023 year is a strong midpoint profit; the same as the first forecast issued for the 2022 year but with some benefit taken for prior years.

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