Forecasts & Results
Atrium Syndicate 609 2022 Year of Account Result & Updated 2021 and 2023 years of account
Posted 14/02/2025 – Forecasts & Results
Atrium has announced the 2022 Year of Account result subject to audit for syndicate 609 and with updated forecasts for the 2021 and 2023 years of account
Syndicate 609
The 2021 forecast range has remained in the range of between 0.0% and +10.0% of capacity (midpoint +5.0% profit).
The 2022 profit of +18.7% of capacity is above the midpoint of the previous forecast range, which was set between +15.0% and +20.0% of capacity. The result is subject to audit sign-off due later this month.
The 2023 forecast range has improved, to between +7.5% and +17.5% (midpoint +12.5%) of capacity. The previous range was between +5.0% and +15.0% (midpoint +10.0%) of capacity.
Alpha Comment
The 2021 year of account remains open due to the exposure to the western leased aircraft in Russia. The situation remains complex and continues to develop with multiple ongoing litigation in a number of different jurisdictions. Key factors including underlying peril, date of loss and whether any form of negotiated settlement is feasible, all result in considerably different ultimate outcomes to the syndicate. A probabilistic approach (similar to that used as at 31 December 2023) was used to try to determine a reasonable reserve and Atrium has reduced and re-focused the number of scenarios under consideration, in line with their evolving knowledge and expectations of the situation. However, the potential for variation to the booked reserves is considerably greater than the normal level of reserve sensitivity to downside risk and the actual outcome could be in a particularly wide range with greater than usual variability. As a result, the 2021 year of account continues to remain open until the level of reserve sensitivity to downside risk normalises.
The 2022 year of account has reported a very strong profit, without any contribution from releases from prior years and with less investment income than would have otherwise been earned had the 2021 & prior years closed into the 2022 year.
The forecast for the 2023 year of account continues to improve. We would expect the run-off of the 2023 year to continue to show improvements in the final twelve months.
The first forecast for the 2024 year of account as at 31st March 2025, will be published on 26th May 2025.
