Forecasts & Results
MAP Syndicate 2791 & 6103 Updated 2023 & Initial 2024 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 07/05/2025 – Forecasts & Results
MAP has released an updated forecast for the 2023 year of account and an initial forecast for the 2024 year of account for its syndicate 2791 & SPA 6103 as at 31st March 2025.
Syndicate 2791
The forecast for the 2023 year has improved to a profit between +31.0% and +36.0% of capacity, midpoint +33.5% (previously +27.5% and +35.0%, midpoint +31.25%).
An initial 2024 forecast has been set with a range of between +2.5% and +10.0% of capacity, midpoint +6.25%.
Syndicate 6103
The forecast for the 2023 year has improved to a profit between +50.0% and +55.0% of capacity, midpoint +52.5% (previously +47.5% and +55.0%, midpoint +51.25%).
An initial 2024 forecast has been set with a range of between +0.0% and +10.0% of capacity, midpoint +5.0%.
Alpha comment
We are pleased to see the 2023 forecasts continue to improve for this exceptional year which benefitted from an absence of major US catastrophe losses. As a reminder, the forecasts for 2791 include no provision for any prior years’ reserve releases until the year closes at 36 months. SPA 6103 reinsures to close into the syndicate 2791 so does not benefit from any surpluses from prior years.
The initial forecast for the 2024 year includes the impact of the LA wildfires which is a significant event for MAP. These early positive forecasts are encouraging. The initial forecast for 2791 is identical to the initial forecast for the 2022 year, which recently closed with a profit of 17.8%.
