NOAA’s US Atlantic hurricane 2025 season report

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted 2025 to be an ‘above-normal’ Atlantic hurricane season. Research from its climatologists have suggested there will be between 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5). Factors influencing the analysis include warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the continued El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.

This report from NOAA reaffirmed research conducted by Colorado State University in April which predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

Alpha comment

The official 2025 Hurricane season begins on 1^st June. Whilst NOAA and Colorado State University are suggesting an ‘above-normal’ year, these predictions never take into account the trajectory of any storm and more specifically where they will make landfall. The insurance industry manages the risk from US windstorms with pricing, aggregate monitoring and terms and conditions. Rate reductions are now commonplace for both direct & facultative property and property reinsurance but from a position of strong price adequacy. However, it is encouraging that terms and conditions are holding firm. As a result, the insurance industry remains in a good position for the forthcoming US hurricane season.