Forecasts & Results
MAP 2791 & 6103 Updated 2024 & Initial 2025 Year of Account Forecasts
Posted 29/04/2026 – Forecasts & Results
MAP has released an updated forecast for the 2024 year of account and an initial forecast for the 2025 year of account for its syndicate 2791 & SPA 6103 as at 31st March 2026.
Syndicate 2791
The forecast for the 2024 year has improved to a profit between +13.0% and +18.0% of capacity, midpoint +15.5% (previously +8.5% and +16.0%, midpoint +12.3%).
An initial 2025 forecast has been set with a range of between +15% and +22.5% of capacity, midpoint +18.8%.
Syndicate 6103
The forecast for the 2024 year has improved to a profit between +20.0% and +25.0% of capacity, midpoint +22.5% (previously +15% and +22.5%, midpoint +18.8%).
An initial 2025 forecast has been set with a range of between +30.0% and +40.0% of capacity, midpoint +35.0%.
Alpha Comment
The improvement on the forecasts for the 2024 year of account for both syndicates is encouraging. We would expect these to continue to improve in the final nine months of development, in line with MAP’s standard approach to forecasting. The forecast for 2791 does not include any assumption for releases from prior years’ until the year closes at 36 months. SPA 6103 reinsures to close into 2791 so does not benefit from any reserves held for prior years.
The 2025 account initial forecasts are both higher than the latest 2024 forecasts for 2791 and 6103, highlighting the low level of major losses during 2025, with the majority of the syndicate’s California wildfire exposure sitting within the 2024 year. We expect the 2025 year to close with very strong profits, subject to a benign run-off.
