NOAA forecasts a ‘below normal’ 2026 US hurricane season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published its first forecast for the North American 2026 hurricane season. Analysis from NOAA predicts with a 70% confidence there will be 8 to 14 named storms including 3 to 6 hurricanes of which 1 to 3 will be major hurricanes. On the basis of probability, it is expected to be a ‘below normal’ hurricane season. This analysis comes to the same conclusion as the Colorado State University’s report which also suggested a ‘below normal’ season.

Alpha Comment

Both of the main forecasters have come to the same conclusion that we should expect a ‘below normal’ hurricane season this year. What they cannot predict is the exact strength and trajectory of any one hurricane. Forecasts for previous years had suggested ‘above average’ hurricane seasons and yet the reality was benign years for the (re)insurance markets as some of the most powerful windstorms did not make landfall. Despite rate reductions being applied across direct property and property reinsurance business, attachment points have held relatively firm which is positive and the industry is well positioned ahead of the 2026 hurricane season.