Forecasts & Results
Complete 2019 & 2020 Year of Account Forecasts as at 31st March 2021
Posted 12/05/2021 – Quick takes
Today we are publishing a complete schedule of 2019 and 2020 year of account forecasts as at 31st March 2021.
We will be writing to Members shortly with individual forecasts for each portfolio.
The latest syndicate estimates as at 31st March 2021 include an update on the 2019 year of account and a first full forecast for the 2020 year of account. For the Lloyd’s market, the 2019 year of account has improved from a midpoint loss of -5.3% to a midpoint loss of -4.8% in the last quarter. Syndicates with third party capital are forecasting an average midpoint loss of -3.4% and aligned syndicates, being those with no third party capital, are forecasting a midpoint loss of -5.4%.
The average Alpha forecast has improved from a midpoint loss of -1.4% to a midpoint loss of -1.0%.
The first 2020 year of account forecast is a midpoint profit of 0.4% for the Lloyd’s market. Syndicates with third party capital are forecasting a midpoint loss of -0.8% and aligned syndicates (which represent 71% of the market) are forecasting a midpoint profit of 0.8%.
The average Alpha forecast is a midpoint profit of 1.1% at this early stage.
As a reminder, the 2019 and 2020 forecasts include all COVID-19 declared reserves held by our syndicates.
We are pleased to report that Alpha continues to outperform both the market and our peers.