Forecasts & Results

Complete 2019 & 2020 Year of Account Forecasts as at 31st March 2021

Posted 12.05.2021 – Quick takes

Today we are publishing a complete schedule of 2019 and 2020 year of account forecasts as at 31st March 2021.

We will be writing to Members shortly with individual forecasts for each portfolio.

Take a look at the schedule here

Alpha comment

The latest syndicate estimates as at 31st March 2021 include an update on the 2019 year of account and a first full forecast for the 2020 year of account. For the Lloyd’s market, the 2019 year of account has improved from a midpoint loss of -5.3% to a midpoint loss of -4.8% in the last quarter. Syndicates with third party capital are forecasting an average midpoint loss of -3.4% and aligned syndicates, being those with no third party capital, are forecasting a midpoint loss of -5.4%.

The average Alpha forecast has improved from a midpoint loss of -1.4% to a midpoint loss of -1.0%.

The first 2020 year of account forecast is a midpoint profit of 0.4% for the Lloyd’s market. Syndicates with third party capital are forecasting a midpoint loss of -0.8% and aligned syndicates (which represent 71% of the market) are forecasting a midpoint profit of 0.8%.

The average Alpha forecast is a midpoint profit of 1.1% at this early stage.

As a reminder, the 2019 and 2020 forecasts include all COVID-19 declared reserves held by our syndicates.

We are pleased to report that Alpha continues to outperform both the market and our peers.

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