MAP has released updated forecasts for Syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103.
Posted 08/11/2021 – Quick takes
MAP has released updated forecasts for the 2019 and 2020 years of account for Syndicate 2791 and SPA 6103.
The 2019 forecast is unchanged at a profit of between 0% and +5.0% of capacity (midpoint +2.5% profit).
The 2020 forecast is unchanged at result in the range -5.0% and +2.5% of capacity (midpoint -1.3% loss).
The 2019 forecast range is unchanged at between +20.0% and +27.5% of capacity (midpoint +23.3% profit).
The 2020 forecast has deteriorated to between -15.0% and -5.0% of capacity (midpoint -10.0% loss). The previous forecast range was between -10% and 0% (midpoint -5%) of capacity.
Alpha Comment: Syndicate 2791’s forecasts remain unchanged this quarter and continue to give us confidence that both years will ultimately end up in profit, once an element of prior year release is included at closure. The forecast profit for 2019 remains very strong for SPA 6103 but, following a small deterioration last quarter, it is disappointing that the 2020 year for the SPA has deteriorated more markedly this quarter. This is primarily due to the syndicate strengthening its reserves for hurricanes Laura and Eta. These forecasts highlight the volatility of returns which can be produced by SPAs.