Forecasts & Results

QBE Syndicate 386: 2019 Result and Updated 2020 Forecast

Posted 18.02.2022 – Quick takes

QBE has announced its result for the 2019 year of account for its syndicate 386 and has also released an updated forecast for the 2020 year of account.

The 2019 result of  a profit of +8.8% of capacity is nearly ten points above the midpoint of the previous forecast range, which was set between -3.6% and +1.4% of capacity, midpoint -1.1%.

The 2020 forecast range has worsened fractionally and is now between +12.5% and +17.5% of capacity (midpoint +15%), the previous forecast range was between +12.8% and +17.8% of capacity, midpoint +15.3%.

Alpha comment

We have raised considerable questions of the QBE management over the volatility in their forecasts. Whilst it is pleasing that, following an end of year reserving exercise, this syndicate has produced a result nearly 10% higher than the midpoint of the previous forecast range, the result is still worse than the profit forecast a year ago and the continuing volatility in the syndicate`s forecasting remains of concern. Looking to the 2020 year of account, clearly the current forecast of a 15% profit would be welcome, but it is worth remembering that the forecast has worsened from 21.3% gradually over the last few quarters, and so it is hard to predict at this stage where the result of this year of account will actually end up at close.

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