Forecasts & Results
Current Schedule of Syndicate Forecasts as at 31st March 2022
Posted 18/05/2022 – Forecasts & Results
Please see below a current schedule of the latest 2020 and 2021 year of account forecasts as at 31st March 2022.
The latest syndicate estimates as at 31st March 2022 include an update for the 2020 year of account and an initial forecast for the 2021 year of account. For the Lloyd’s market, the 2020 year of account has deteriorated from a midpoint profit of +0.9% to a midpoint profit of +0.4% in the last quarter. Syndicates with third party capital are forecasting an average midpoint loss of -1.5% (down from -1.4% last quarter) and aligned syndicates, being those with no third party capital, are forecasting a midpoint profit of +1.3% (down from +1.9% last quarter).
The average Alpha forecast remains unchanged at a profit of +1.7%.
The initial 2021 year of account forecast is midpoint profit of +4.2% for the Lloyd’s market. Syndicates with third party capital are forecasting a midpoint profit of +2.1% and aligned syndicates (which represent 67% of the market) are forecasting a midpoint profit of +5.1%.
It is normal that syndicates with third party capital are more conservative in their reserving than aligned capital, where the same capital supports each year.
The average Alpha forecast is a midpoint profit of +2.4% at this initial stage.
For syndicates with exposure to the war in Ukraine, some of their expected loss will fall into their 2021 year of account, namely the aviation and political violence exposure. Due to the considerable uncertainty as to which policies would respond to the aviation loss, if any, and the ongoing nature of the conflict, figures for any potential aviation losses may not yet be included in these forecasts.
We will be updating this page as and when we receive more forecasts and results.
Please click here to download the most recent set of forecasts and results